Ralston, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS63 KOAX 110447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thundershowers remain possible this evening mainly over
  southeast NE and southwest IA.

- Scattered showers are possible again on Monday, mainly
  near/south of I-80. Severe storms and flooding are unlikely.

- Mainly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected
  through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

At 3 PM Sunday, a weak cool front extended from Kearney and
Grand Island toward Lincoln, where it intersected an
southwestward drifting outflow boundary. This outflow originated
from thundershowers in western Iowa and steadily progressed
southwest with additional thundershowers developing along it and
reinforcing it, but has since waned and just has a few
lingering showers. Temperatures behind the outflow are in the
70s, with low 80s elsewhere. Through the next several hours,
expect the trend of a few light showers to continue, possibly
with a rumble of thunder, but overall much of the area has
stabilized and significant storms or rainfall is not expected
through this evening.

Overnight tonight, a large thunderstorm complex is likely to
develop well south of the forecast area, and is likely to stay
to the south. Will want to watch potential for showers or a few
storms to edge north toward the KS/NE and MO/IA border regions
by morning but overall potential is pretty low...especially for
heavy rain...so cancelled the flood watch. One interesting thing
to watch overnight will be the potential for fog to develop as
surface high pressure builds in over the top of some still-
elevated dewpoints and pretty widespread wet soil conditions.
Winds will be light and there will be some radiational cooling
so there seems to be at least some potential for fog with
question marks about how dense or how widespread.

Monday into Monday night, we`ll still be north of the main storm
track, but there are some indications that the next short wave
trough could track a bit closer to the far southern CWA. If this
happens, could see some decent rainfall in the far southeast
parts of the forecast area as it will be slow moving with access
to plenty of moisture, but not totally sold on how far north it
will track. One way or another, have some decent chances for
showers or a few storms, mainly south of I-80 on Monday, and
probably not a total rainout other than in the far southeast if
the system tracks closer.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will be pretty seasonal
with highs mainly in the 80s, and picking up into the 90s by
late week. There are a few weak short waves that move within
reach of the forecast area and could arguably kick off a few
storms during the week, but it mostly looks dry with steadily
rising height fields through the week trying to push the main
storm track back to the north of the area. All told, it looks
like a pretty decent week, and likely a break from the recent
severe weather and heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Fog is gradually pushing into the area this evening and will
likely expand MVFR conditions across much of southeast NE and
southwest IA overnight. A few hours of MVFR conditions is
expected at all terminals. Patchy areas of IFR to LIFR
conditions will be possible, though confidence in these
conditions at the terminals is too low to include in the current
TAF package. Amendments will be made if needed. Fog will
gradually improve through the morning, with VFR conditions
expected thereafter. Winds will remain calm through the period,
gradually veering from northeasterly to southwesterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wood